Craps, though a relatively simple game on the surface, relies heavily (arguably entirely) upon the probabilities that exist for any given roll. In order to better prepare yourself for the game ahead of you it is first important to fully understand the probabilities that the game has in store and what this means for your rolls and, subsequently, your wagers.
The first thing to understand when looking at craps is grasping the full spectrum of the rolls, from the most likely down to the least likely. For any given combination of numbers there is a total possibility of 36 different outcomes for a pair of dice (6 different outcomes on 2 different dice, or 6 to the power of 2). Of these 36 total outcomes the most likely of these being rolled is a 7 as it has the total highest possible combinations equaling that number, with a total of 6 out of the possible 36 rolls or a ratio of 5:1 (or roughly 16.67%). On the opposite end of the spectrum, however, are the two extremes of 2 and 12. Each of these only has one possible outcome for them to be rolled; therefore, the probability of this occurring is 35:1 (which can equate to roughly 2.78%).
From there, the probabilities are adjusted accordingly in relation to how far each number is from the central 7, with numbers becoming increasing less likely to be rolled the closer they come to the extremes of 2 and 12. In terms of winning the come-out roll where a 7 or an 11 are necessary, for instance, the combined total outcomes are 8 out of the 36 possibilities, translated into 3.5:1 or roughly 22.22%, whereas the odds of losing the come-out roll by the dice totaling 2, 3 or 12 is 4 out of the possible 36 meaning odds of 8:1, or 11.11%.
Pass line bets offer slightly different probabilities, with a total of 12 out of the possible 36 rolls being a successful wager. Therefore, with that in mind, you can expect to win a pass line bet approximately 33.33% of the time, or one in every three rolls (at odds of 2:1). Of course, this number can change considerably as the game progresses and the line changes; however, this is the initial odds placed on any particular pass line bet at the beginning of the game.
When formulating your own craps strategy carefully consider the likelihood of actually winning the bet compared to the total overall outcomes and what they mean to you and your wager. This can help you decide whether or not a bet is worthwhile and offers the best possible return on investment as well as the greatest likelihood of success. While it is true that there is no guaranteed way to completely eliminate the house’s advantage over you as a gambler by placing your wagers accordingly and taking your winnings when it is in your best interest to do so you can help minimize your losses and maximize your gains. Just be sure to test out your strategy on a free practice table before adopting any live wagers that could cost you dearly.
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